Subjects = Crisis Management/Passive Defense
Crisis Management/Passive Defense

Analysis of Neighborhood Resilience from the Perspective of Passive Defense (Case study: Qom City, Iran)

Volume 10, Issue 38, Spring 2026, Pages 5-22

https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2026.2079748.1215

Mohsen Kameli, Hasan Hosseini Amini

Abstract Extended Abstarct
Introduction
Contemporary cities face escalating risks from natural hazards and human-induced threats owing to rapid population growth, infrastructural complexity, and spatial densification (Rezaie Narimisa et al., 2019). Enhancing urban resilience has therefore emerged as an urgent imperative. Within this context, passive defense—a non-confrontational strategy aimed at vulnerability reduction and improvement of absorption, response, and recovery capacities—offers a robust framework for threat mitigation at the neighborhood scale (Ghajari et al., 2018).
As the primary organizational units of urban fabric, neighborhoods constitute critical arenas for implementing passive defense measures. Public and strategic facilities located within them are frequently primary targets during crises; consequently, reducing neighborhood-level vulnerabilities substantially strengthens societal defensive capacity. Accordingly, this study examines neighborhood resilience in Qom City, Iran, through the lens of passive defense, addressing three principal research questions:
· How do neighborhood spatial indicators (green space provision, building density, and distance from strategic centers) exert direct and indirect influences on shelter design criteria and overall neighborhood resilience?
· Which shelter design criteria do experts regard as most critical to neighborhood resilience, and how are these criteria hierarchically ranked?
· How does the prioritization of shelter design criteria differ according to shelter function (public, hospital, command), and what are the implications for resilience planning?

Theoretical Framework
The neighborhood represents a multifaceted construct in urban studies, encompassing social, perceptual, physical, functional, and political dimensions. Internationally, neighborhoods are typically conceptualized as spatially bounded areas possessing distinct identity and providing daily services within convenient walking distance. In the Iranian context, official guidelines define neighborhoods as units containing 700–1,250 households accessible within a 4–5-minute pedestrian radius and anchored by mosques, schools, parks, and local commercial facilities.
Beyond demographic and service thresholds, collective identity, social interaction, spatial legibility, environmental quality, and physical continuity are pivotal to neighborhood cohesion. The neighborhood scale is particularly salient for passive defense and resilience planning, as it aligns with citizens’ lived experience and hosts essential infrastructure and population concentrations. Core passive defense principles—appropriate site selection, concealment and camouflage, emergency circulation networks, structural reinforcement, and multifunctional space design—are most effectively operationalized at this level. Moreover, neighborhood resilience extends beyond technical parameters to incorporate social capital, access to open space, environmental quality, and service coordination. Within this integrated perspective, shelter design emerges as a vital nexus of technical, spatial, and socio-functional considerations, yielding safe and adaptable refuges during crises.

Methodology
This applied investigation adopted a descriptive–analytical design. Data were collected through documentary review, field observation, expert questionnaires, and geospatial analysis. The study area comprised Qom City, with three representative neighborhoods (Pardisan, Emam, and Shahrak-e Qods) selected via cluster sampling. Expert judgment was elicited from 12 specialists in architecture and passive defense using structured questionnaires. Quantitative analysis and structural equation modeling were performed using SPSS 26 and AMOS 24 software.

Results and Discussion
Expert assessments, validated by the Friedman rank test, established structural resistance and emergency evacuation routes as the preeminent shelter design criteria (highest mean ranks). Spatial indicators significantly moderated these criteria: green space provision and greater distance from strategic centers correlated positively with structural resistance and accessibility, whereas elevated building density exhibited inverse relationships.
Criterion prioritization varied markedly by shelter typology. Emergency routes emerged as the dominant consideration for hospital shelters, reflecting the imperative of rapid patient evacuation and ambulance access. Conversely, concealment and camouflage assumed primary importance for command centers to minimize detection risk. Structural resistance and strategic location, however, retained universal salience across all functional categories.
Structural equation modeling confirmed that neighborhood resilience is shaped through both direct pathways (safety-oriented design criteria and favorable physical attributes) and indirect pathways mediated by design criteria. Hierarchical cluster analysis delineated three neighborhood typologies: (1) planned resilient neighborhoods exhibiting optimal spatial characteristics and high design compliance; (2) dense vulnerable neighborhoods constrained by excessive building density and limited open space; and (3) location-dependent neighborhoods whose resilience hinged predominantly on proximity to or distance from strategic assets. These typologies facilitate targeted, context-specific interventions.
The results affirm the necessity of a systemic approach that integrates shelter design standards with neighborhood physical planning, acknowledges functional differentiation, and leverages spatial analytics to strengthen urban resilience.

Conclusion
This investigation demonstrates that structural resistance and emergency evacuation routes constitute the cornerstone shelter design criteria for enhancing neighborhood resilience, followed by strategic location and concealment measures. Neighborhood spatial characteristics—green space provision, building density, and distance from strategic centers—exert significant direct and indirect effects on criterion fulfillment and resilience outcomes. Furthermore, functional specialization markedly influences criterion hierarchy, with hospital shelters prioritizing circulation efficiency and command facilities emphasizing concealment.
Ultimately, achieving robust urban resilience necessitates the systematic integration of shelter design with neighborhood-scale spatial planning, explicit consideration of shelter function, and adoption of differentiated, evidence-based strategies tailored to local physical and strategic conditions. Such an approach will facilitate the development of resilient, adaptive urban shelter networks capable of withstanding contemporary threats.

Crisis Management/Passive Defense

Assessing the Attractiveness of Urban Uses Against Terrorist Attacks Using the RANCOM-PIV Method

Volume 9, Issue 34, Spring 2025, Pages 91-108

https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2025.2048213.1118

Ali Bitarafan, Mah tiam Shahbazi, Farah Habib

Abstract Extended Abstract
Introduction
Terrorist attacks, which are one of the most dangerous security challenges in the contemporary world, have painful effects on society and social, political, and economic structures. Over the past two decades, terrorist attacks with religious and political motives have been increasing (Budo et al., 2019; Koehler, 2016). This phenomenon has spread a sense of insecurity and anxiety among different countries and societies; therefore, analyzing the vulnerability caused by these attacks seems necessary. The scientific study of terrorism and counterterrorism has witnessed explosive growth today, with a large number of studies addressing the threat of terrorism and examining how to mitigate such threats (Bakshi & Pinkler, 2018; Dessler, 2002), predict (Campedella et al., 2021; Dessler, 2002; Python et al., 2021), and describe (Jaspersen & Montibler, 2020). Although counterterrorism efforts have led to improved technologies, more resilient targets, and increased security personnel, terrorists continue to seek to identify vulnerabilities in existing systems and infrastructure, a fact that reflects the adaptive nature of terrorists, which has motivated much work using game theory to study strategic interactions between defenders and adversaries (Hunt & Zhang, 2024).
Although this breadth of research history demonstrates a highly advanced understanding of how and why terrorism occurs, there are key gaps in the place and time of emergence of the terrorism threat; therefore, the important issue of the present research is to what extent each urban use is attractive to terrorist attacks. Ranking and assessing the attractiveness of each use plays a significant role in identifying vulnerabilities and calculating the resilience of cities against terrorist threats; because in terrorist threats, especially bombing operations, in addition to the attacked use itself, adjacent uses within the explosion radius are also affected, and in practice, it increases vulnerability and reduces resilience in this area and can be a very influential indicator.Considering the above issues, this article seeks to answer the following questions:
What indicators are effective in determining the target points of terrorist attacks?
hat incentives and barriers exist in the path of planning and carrying out terrorist attacks in urban environments?
What scenarios can be implemented to reduce the impact of terrorist attacks in urban environments?
How practical are scenarios in reducing threats?
Research Methodology
The present study is classified as applied-developmental research in terms of research type and descriptive-analytical research in terms of research nature. The research method employed in this study is a descriptive-analytical approach. First, using library and internet resources, the history of terrorist attacks was examined, along with their impact on various urban uses. Next, the effective indicators for evaluating the attractiveness of urban uses in the context of terrorist attacks were identified. Then, the types of uses and micro-uses were extracted from different sources. By designing a questionnaire, the scores for each indicator were obtained based on the opinions of experts. Then, using the RANCOM multi-criteria decision-making method, the weight and importance of each indicator were obtained. Finally, using the PIV decision-making method, the attractiveness of each micro-use was ranked.
Result and discussion
Calculating the weight of indicators for evaluating the attractiveness of urban uses against terrorist attacks
The RANCOM decision-making method was employed to determine the weights of the indicators. In this regard, the results obtained from the questionnaires were first analyzed using SPSS software. Then, the priority of the weights was determined, which is the first stage of the RANCOM method, and a pairwise comparison matrix was subsequently formed. The collective weight of the criteria was then calculated, and finally, the final weight of each indicator was obtained.
According to the elite community of this research, the damage and casualties index has the highest weight, because, based on the behavior of terrorists, they try to attack applications that cause the most damage and casualties in order to create more fear and panic in society. The threat history index is ranked second and weighs 0.267. The population density index is ranked next, with a weight of 0.2, and finally, the two indicators of secondary damage and continuity of essential services are ranked.
Calculating the rank and weight of micro-user attractiveness using the PIV method
In this stage of the research, the nature of the criteria was first determined. Then, using the results obtained from the analysis of the questionnaires in SPSS software with a reliability of 96%, a decision-making matrix was formed based on the PIV method, which included five indicators and 65 micro-users. Next, the matrix was normalized, and using the results of the RANCOM decision-making method, in which the weights of each indicator were obtained, the weighting of the normalized decision-making matrix was performed. Then, the distance criterion and the collective value of the distance were calculated. Finally, the weight and rank of each micro-user were determined, and the results are presented in Table 6.
Conclusion
Based on the results obtained from the urban commercial centers of the market, wholesale is ranked first in terms of attractiveness to users for terrorist attacks, the main reason being the large population during this holiday. In addition to commercial shops, this center now includes many other areas such as cinemas, game centers, etc., which, if carried out by a terrorist attack, would cause a lot of human casualties and create much panic in the city. In second place, the micro-utilization of airports with a score of 0.158 are ranked second due to population density and the importance of their services, followed by military command centers in third place, oil and gas infrastructure in fourth, border control centers in fifth, and port facilities in sixth. Religious sites, hospitals, military and law enforcement headquarters, and courts and prosecutors’ offices are ranked in the subsequent positions. These findings are consistent with the data from the GTD database in 2024.

Crisis Management/Passive Defense

Assessing Urban Resiliency Against Terrorist Attacks (Case study: Bagh-e-Fayz neighborhood in Tehran)

Volume 9, Issue 34, Spring 2025, Pages 131-152

https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2025.2049650.1110

Mahdi Bitarafan, Sajjad Abazarlou, Gholamreza Zarei

Abstract Terrorist attacks in cities and urban neighborhoods, as one of the significant security threats, have widespread impacts on citizens' daily lives, social stability, and economic development. Cities are prime targets for these attacks due to their population density, financial and political centers, and critical infrastructure. These types of attacks can cause irreparable damage to individuals and structures of society, from an explosion in a metro station to a shooting in a local market. For example, the Paris terrorist attacks in 2015 and the Mumbai bombings in 2008 demonstrated how such incidents not only cause loss of life but also have profound psychological and economic impacts. Terrorism in urban areas is usually designed to create fear and panic among the general public and undermine trust in government institutions. These attacks can completely disrupt public spaces due to the close connection between urban neighborhoods and people's daily lives. They also pose new challenges for security forces and urban planners, requiring more comprehensive strategies to protect urban communities (Hoffman, 2017; Wilkinson, 2016; UNODC, 2020). Between 1970 and 2017, nearly 170,000 terrorist attacks targeting civilians in cities resulted in the deaths or injuries of more than 500,000 people. (Crenshaw, Robison, 2022) These events are often referred to as large-scale disasters (Jat, Rafique, 2020). While natural and artificial hazards share similarities in their destructive potential and management challenges, terrorism stands out as the least recognized risk. This is partly due to the diverse definitions of terrorism, which complicates its understanding compared to other natural hazards (Shreve et al, 2016).
This study seeks to examine the following questions:
1) What are the urban management resilience criteria for combating terrorism?
2) What is the importance of each urban management resilience criterion in decision-making and assessment of the region in question?
3) What are the new policies for increasing urban resilience?
Therefore, this study, using multi-criteria decision-making models with GIS, seeks to measure and evaluate important urban management criteria for combating terrorist attacks and implement the developed conceptual model in a significant case study.
In this study, to address the questions raised, the research method is first presented. Subsequently, using library resources, indicators for assessing the resilience of cities against terrorist attacks were identified, and their weights were calculated using the Delphi technique and decision-making methods. Also, using spatial data from the Bagh-e-Fayz neighborhood in Tehran, the resilience of building parcels in this area against terrorist threats was calculated.
Methodology
The present study is considered an applied research in terms of research type and a descriptive-analytical research in terms of research nature. In this study, urban resilience criteria and indicators were extracted using library studies in the form of a content analysis method, and the effectiveness of the criteria and indicators was evaluated using the IHWP model (Inverse Hierarchy Analysis) in the form of a questionnaire completed by the elite community. The statistical population of the study consisted of 30 experts in the field of passive defense, urban development, and crisis management from the National Passive Defense Organization, the National Passive Defense Scientific Association, the Crisis Management Research Institute of Malek Ashtar University of Technology, and Tehran Municipality, who were selected through expert judgment and the statistical sample of the study was 28 people using the Cochran formula.
Result and discussion
It is worth noting that, according to the scores obtained from the indicators, 10 indicators were selected to examine the study area's resilience against terrorist attacks. The selection of these indicators was based on the limited information available in the area regarding existing GIS layers in the Bagh-e-Faiz neighborhood. The indicators of the second part are; the degree of importance of the use (key asset), access to multi-purpose centers, distance from high-voltage electricity pylons, population density, access to medical centers, access to open and green spaces, access to fire centers, access to law enforcement centers, distance from gas stations, and communication network hierarchy.
In the following, the status of the Bagh-e-Faiz neighborhood is examined according to the 10 aforementioned indicators, and the final map was produced according to Figure (1) by classifying the data into five distinct classes including (very low, low, medium, high, and very high) in terms of resilience against terrorist attacks. The results show that 63.4% of the neighborhood area is in very low resilience, which is in the northern part of the neighborhood and around key assets. 24.32% of the neighborhood is in low resilience, which includes the northeastern and southwestern parts of the neighborhood. 29.34% of the neighborhood is in medium resilience, which is in the central and southern parts of the neighborhood, concentrated in the area of ​​Bahonar Street. 30.88% of the neighborhood is in the high-resilience area, which includes the northern parts of the neighborhood. 10.81% of the neighborhood is in the very high resilience area, which includes the eastern part of the neighborhood.
Conclusion
Urban resilience is of great importance in the face of terrorist attacks, as these attacks can have devastating effects on the security, economy, and social psychology of cities. Urban resilience helps maintain public safety, as resilient cities have a better ability to restore order and reduce chaos after an attack. In addition, by strengthening critical infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and emergency services, resilience can minimize physical damage and maintain the city's essential functions. In the present study, criteria and indicators of resilience of cities against terrorist attacks were identified through library studies and the opinions of various researchers. Data analysis was carried out in two separate sections. In the first section; The impact of indicators on the resilience of cities was evaluated using the IHWP model, and the results show that the following indicators, respectively, are population distribution and density with 33.5 percent, the importance of land uses with 4.8 percent, household size with 4.66 percent, the level of dependence and interaction of infrastructure with 4.26 percent, population growth and correct location with 4 percent, the level of city readability with 3.73 percent, road access with 3.73 percent, indigenous population with 3.33 percent, the proximity and compatibility of land uses with 3.2 percent. The texture and pattern of the city, with 3.2 percent, has the most significant impact on the resilience of cities against terrorist attacks. In the second part of the study, the results of the index scores in the first part were used, and by selecting ten indicators, the resilience of a case study was evaluated in GIS software. The results show that 63.4 percent of the neighborhood area is in very low resilience, which is in the northern part of the neighborhood and around key assets. 24.32 percent of the neighborhood is in the low resilience range, which includes the northeastern and southwestern parts of the neighborhood. 29.34 percent of the neighborhood is in the medium resilience range, which includes the central and southern parts of the neighborhood, concentrated in the area of ​​Bahonar Street. 30.88 percent of the neighborhood is in the high resilience range, which includes the northern parts of the neighborhood. 10.81 percent of the neighborhood is in the very high resilience range, which includes the eastern part of the neighborhood. Comparing the results of the present study with previous research shows that so far, no model has been presented to assess the resilience of cities against terrorist threats that is capable of presenting a resilience map in parcel form, and most of the previous research has focused on the tendencies of terrorists or their tools.
 

Crisis Management/Passive Defense

Earthquake crisis management planning in historical contexts with the approach of empowerment and identification of factors affecting it (case example: Kashan historical context)

Volume 8, Issue 30, Spring 2024, Pages 31-48

https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2024.2037369.1077

Alireza Anisi, Mohammad ali Zaghian

Abstract Due to the high vulnerability of historical tissues during an earthquake and reviewing the experiences of previous earthquakes, identifying the factors affecting the empowerment of this type of tissue against earthquakes is one of the important topics in the crisis management process. Its realization based on the principles of pre-accident empowerment can prevent the occurrence or spread of secondary crises. In historical contexts, due to the long life of buildings and the lack of necessary measures for proper strengthening, the occurrence of earthquakes will cause significant damage and the rate of severe losses and widespread homelessness of their residents. To this end, it is necessary to focus more on these types of areas, Investigate the fact that it has a very important role in preparing the community and preventing disaster in various dimensions, as well as in the process of community rehabilitation and reconstruction of the affected area. The method of this qualitative research is based on description and test with AHP analysis. In this research, the historical context of Kashan as one of the important centers of earthquakes has been discussed. In several stages, step by step and interconnected, the what, why and how of the subject is examined in different sections.Then, in order to collect criteria from the interview method; To determine the target population and correct sampling, multi-criteria decision-making method and AHP hierarchical analysis process and finally an expert questionnaire for pairwise comparison were used. The results show that prior to the occurrence of earthquakes in historical contexts, according to the prevailing conditions in these areas, with proper planning, an appropriate response to the critical conditions can be predicted. In this regard, it is necessary to provide the principles and approaches of empowerment in the crisis management program in historical contexts by identifying, then analyzing and evaluating the effective factors in the physical, social and economic fields and finally providing an appropriate solution.

Crisis Management/Passive Defense

Providing a Management Model for Empowering Informal Settlements with a Passive Defense Approach (Case Study: Shahriar City, Tehran)

Volume 7, Issue 29, Winter 2024, Pages 59-76

https://doi.org/10.22034/jspr.2024.2036266.1072

Syed Ahmad Hosseininia, Pasand Mahdavi Saeeidi

Abstract As one of the immigrant-friendly centers of Tehran province, Shahryar city has faced physical expansion and the formation of informal settlements. Based on this, the aim of the current research is to present a suitable management model for organizing and empowering these neighborhoods and preventing their formation in Shahryar city with a passive defense approach. The current research is applied and its method is descriptive-analytical. Research information has been collected in the form of field and documents. The statistical population includes the legal boundaries of Shahriar city in 1401. The sample size consists of 322 residents and 10 experts. Methods such as AHP, TOPSIS, chi-square test, single-variable chi-square test, Spearman's correlation coefficient, regression coefficient and variance regression (ANOVA) have been used to analyze the research data. GIS and SPSS software have been used to analyze research data.The results of the research show that the percentage of neighborhoods with suitable, relatively suitable, average, relatively unsuitable and unsuitable quality is 9%, 22%, 32%, 26% and 11% respectively. Therefore, more than 37% of the fabric of Shahriar city needs passive defense planning. The results of the chi-square test (70.06) and its significance level (0.00) confirm the lack of trust of the residents of Shahryar city towards urban management in reducing the problems of informal settlements. Based on the results of Spearman's correlation coefficient (0.567) and regression determination coefficient (0.37), the urban management model based on local management cores and neighborhood development offices with a passive defense approach on organizing and empowering informal settlements in Shahriar city and preventing the formation They have the most impact. The results of variance regression analysis and simple linear regression analysis have also confirmed this. In addition, the passive defense approach can improve the security and safety factor of Shahriar city through organizing and empowering the neighborhoods, creating facilities and equipment to reduce vulnerability, creating emergency accommodation places.