نویسنده

دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری(محیط زیست شهری) ،دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

کشاورزی از جمله مهمترین بخش‌هایی است که بسیار زیاد تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار می‌گیرد.کاهش سطح زیرکشت،کاهش حاصل‌خیزی خاک، کاهش سطح آب،افزایش مرگ‌ومیر دام‌ها، کاهش درآمد کشاورزان ، افزایش قیمت غذا ومحصولات، رشد بیکاری و ... از جمله پیامدهای آن می‌باشد. با توجه به قرارگیری استان سیستان و بلوچستان در خشک‌ترین منطقه کشور و افزایش خشکسالی این پژوهش به بررسی نقش مهاجرت اقلیمی در کاهش بهره‌دهی محصولات کشاورزی با به کارگیریGIS و روش ‌IO در استان سیستان‌وبلوچستان پرداخته است. ابتدا داده‌های بارش (میلی‌متر) دما و میزان آب در دسترس، سال‌های 1400-1370 مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. یافته‌ها نشان‌دهنده آن است که بارندگی، دمای فصلی و میزان آب روندی به ترتیب کاهش،افزایش و کاهش دارد که این تغییرات دارای اثر معناداری بر عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی منطقه می‌باشد. سپس به روش Overlay و تحلیل آماری در محیط GIS با تهیه نقشه‌های شیب، جهت وارتفاع از طریق روی‌هم‌گذاری لایه‌ها نقشه شکل زمین تهیه سپس با روی-هم‌گذاری لایه شکل زمین، کاربری اراضی،خاک و پوشش گیاهی نقشۀ توزیع پراکندگی خشکسالی در منطقه و لایه‌های اطلاعاتی، بررسی رابطه خشکسالی با محصولات کشاورزی نقشۀ وضعیت زمین‌های کشاورزی منطقه تهیه شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که سطح زیرکشت مقادیر محصولات مورد مطالعه(گندم، جو، ذرت، سیب‌زمینی) تغییر یافته است که مقداری منفی نسبت به سال‌ پایه می‌باشد. تغییرات اقلیمی به همراه وقوع خشکسالی‌های شدید در این منطقه، اثرات نامطلوب اقتصادی و اجتماعی برجای گذاشته است که با توجه به وابستگی شدید اقتصادی مردم سیستان و بلوچستان به کشاورزی این بحران منجر به پدیده مهاجرت اجباری ساکنان شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity using GIS and IO method (Case study: Sistan and Baluchestan)

نویسنده [English]

  • mina heydari

M.A. in Geography and Urban Planning (Urban Environment), Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Agriculture is one of the most important sectors that are graetly affected by climate change.Reducing the level of
agriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasing animal mortality, reducing farmers’ income,
increasing food and product prices, growth of unemployment, etc. One of its consequences is. Considering
the location of Sistan and Baluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought, this
study aimed to investigate the role of climatic migration in reducing crop productivity by usingGIS and IO
method in Sistan and Baluchestan province.
-For this purpose, first, precipitation data (mm) of temperature and available water were studied in 1991-
1400. The results show that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water rate decrease, increase and decrease
respectively, which has a significant effect on agricultural yield in the region.Then, by overlay method and
statistical analysis in GIS environment, by preparing slope maps, for elevation through overlapping layers,
land shape map was prepared and then by overlapping the land shape layer, land use, soil and vegetation
distribution map of drought distribution in the region and information layers, the relationship between drought
and agricultural crops of agricultural lands of the region was prepared
-. The results indicate that the area under cultivation of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes)
has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. Considering the position of Sistan and
Baluchestan province in the driest region of the country and increasing drought and desertification of this
region, economic and social problems such as migration from these regions are among the most important
effects of drought. At first, the study of data obtained from SPI index, precipitation data (mm) temperature and
available water values, 1991-1400 indicates that rainfall, seasonal temperature and trend water are decreasing,
increasing and decreasing, respectively, and drought is increasing. These changes have a significant effect
on the yield of the studied crops (wheat, barley, corn, potatoes) in the region. . Then, by overlay method
and statistical analysis in GIS environment, drought distribution map in the region and information layers,
investigation of the relationship between drought and agricultural crops, agricultural land status map of the
region were prepared. The results of statistical analysis indicate that the level of cultivation of the values of
the studied products has changed, which is a negative value compared to the base year. According to the
results of this study, a considerable percentage of agricultural lands are no longer suitable for cultivation and
another percentage is in a sensitive and deteriorating situation. In Sistan and Baluchestan province, the rate of
drought years is increasing, and increasing severe and acute droughts can affect agriculture and consequently,
employment in related jobs and consequently, migration. Environmental problems such as drought in Sistan
and Baluchestan province have also created problems for people’s lives that people have been forced to
give up their homes and lives and migrate to other cities of the province. . These migrations certainly have
different effects and results such as increasing marginalization, increasing the price of housing and land in
migratory provinces, reducing the level of agriculture, reducing soil fertility, reducing water level, increasing
animal mortality, reducing farmers’ income, Increasing the price of food and products, lowering the quality of
agricultural products, creating problems and cultural encounters, unemployment, etc. Therefore, it is expected
that to control the consequences of these migrations with strong planning and management to prevent any
crisis and problems in the country.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought
  • GIS
  • Overlapping layers
  • Agricultural productivity