Introduction
The rapid and often uncontrolled growth of urbanization has created numerous challenges, most notably the development of inefficient and deteriorating urban areas. These areas often lag behind the natural progression of urban development and become centers of infrastructural weakness and social vulnerability. In response to these conditions, urban regeneration has emerged as a strategic approach to revitalize declining neighborhoods and address their complex social and physical problems. Urban development projects around religious sites represent a particularly complex type of intervention. Such projects typically produce both positive and negative effects, most of which are concentrated in the surrounding neighborhoods of the project. Historically, areas around shrines have required ongoing expansion to accommodate the growing number of pilgrims. However, these physical transformations create a significant challenge: balancing the functional and logistical needs of pilgrims with the social sustainability and quality of life of the local residents. In recent decades, urban management has prioritized increasing the physical capacity of shrines, often overlooking the social and human dimensions of development. Consequently, limited attention has been paid to how residents perceive and experience these substantial neighborhood changes. This study seeks to address this gap by modeling and evaluating the perceived social impacts of the ongoing Zainabiyeh Shrine development plan in Isfahan from the perspective of local residents.
Theoretical Framework
The theoretical foundation of this study rests on the assumption that successful urban spaces, particularly those surrounding pilgrimage sites, must be shaped not only by physical and structural interventions but also by the perceptions and needs of the local residents. In this study, perceived social impacts are defined as residents’ assessments of how urban development initiatives affect their daily lives, social environment, and overall well-being, whether positively or negatively. Based on a review of domestic and international experiences, this study proposes a theoretical framework structured around seven main components and their related indicators. These dimensions include urban security, urban identity, accessibility, social participation, social justice, urban vitality, and economic dynamism.
Methodology
This study adopted an applied research approach and employed a descriptiveanalytical design. Data were collected using two complementary methods: a comprehensive review of the relevant literature and documents and a field survey conducted using a structured questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of 900 residential parcels located within the immediate impact area of the Zainabiyeh Shrine Development Plan. Using Cochran’s formula and systematic random sampling, a representative sample of 120 residential parcels was selected for the study. Questionnaires were distributed to the informed members of the selected households to ensure reliable responses.
To ensure methodological rigor, the content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by university faculty. Its reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha, which yielded a high coefficient of 0.947, indicating a strong internal consistency. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test revealed that the data were not normally distributed; therefore, nonparametric statistical methods were employed. Quantitative data were analyzed primarily using the Sign Test and second-order confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) with SPSS and SmartPLS software.
Result and Discussion
Demographic data showed that 58.3% of respondents were male and 41.7% were female. The results suggest that local residents generally rate their current living conditions as moderate to low, especially in areas such as social participation and economic dynamism. Among the components evaluated, physical "accessibility" received the highest satisfaction score, with a mean of 3.380, indicating relatively positive improvements in the physical infrastructure.
In contrast, "economic dynamism" had the lowest mean score (2.136), indicating significant dissatisfaction among the local population. Additionally, "social participation" scored an alarmingly low 2.24. The second-order CFA results, which showed a strong model fit with a goodness of fit (GOF) value of 0.595, identified the most influential factors within each dimension. For example, within the social participation dimension, "attention to residents' concerns and questions" had the highest factor loading (0.257), while in the economic dimension, "innovation and creativity in jobs" (0.507) was the most critical factor.
Overall, while the project succeeded in improving accessibility and permeability, it faced substantial challenges in the socio-economic areas. The low score for social participation suggests a top-down planning approach that excludes local stakeholders from the decision-making process. Furthermore, residents did not experience the expected economic benefits, instead feeling the increased pressure of urban living costs.
Conclusion
The assessment of residents' perceptions of the social impacts of the Zainabiyeh Shrine development plan reveals a clear disconnect between top-down urban regeneration efforts and the socioeconomic realities of the affected population. The findings emphasize the urgent need for municipal authorities to revise their participatory planning policies and strengthen their social resilience. Relying on top-down development models erodes civic trust and weakens the attachment to places. To address these challenges, it is essential to conduct continuous field-based needs assessments throughout the implementation phase of the development plan. These assessments will help mitigate the negative impacts on local communities. Additionally, future research and planning should prioritize evaluating the social consequences of forced displacement due to urban acquisitions. It should also explore the dynamics of shrine development strategies across various urban centers to establish more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable frameworks for urban regeneration.